Consultant, System Dynamics Modeling for Low Carbon Development Initiatives (2 positions)
The Low Carbon Development Initiative (LCDI) is a major undertaking by Indonesia’s Ministry of Planning (BAPPENAS) aimed to mainstream principles of sustainable development in policy making. It relies on the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA or KLHS), a methodological framework that pursues a change of paradigm away from an old unsustainable model of utilization of natural resources and of reliance on high carbon emission sources of energy; and into a new sustainable model that preserves the country’s vast natural capital base, while shifting towards renewable, low carbon sources of energy. The LCDI provides analytical inputs to Indonesia’s Medium-term Development Plan, RPJMN 2020-2024, under what is known as the Technocratic Process; and to the country’s long-term development vision (Indonesia Vision 2045). Inputs are presented in the form of low carbon, sustainable development policies, interventions and investments, based on the understanding of the feedback relationships between climate systems, the environment and the socio-economy.
The analytical work of LCDI has offered insights not only on the actions for moving into a path of low carbon development, but also on the expected co-benefits derived from climate action. Results of the analysis show unequivocal gains in terms of value addition, employment, and welfare indicators, associated with a transition to low carbon systems and a growth model that preserves the country’s natural capital, including forests, biodiversity and water resources. Moreover, such gains can be expected to occur even in the short to medium term, in as much as actions identified under the LCDI are applied efficiently and with sufficient force and coherence, so that no trade-offs are generally expected from embracing low carbon policies.
Lessons and insights from LCDI must now be transmitted to and embraced by a large group of stakeholders at the national and at the provincial level; so that Indonesian society at large becomes not only aware of, but also motivated to contribute to the LCDI agenda. This is with the understanding that a successful transition to a low carbon development paradigm requires bold action not only from the national and regional government, but also from private sector and individuals across the country. This is particularly important considering the substantive effort required to move into a low carbon development path that is consistent with the Paris target to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius and aiming for 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Looking ahead, there are multiple modeling analysis using system dynamics approach to be carried out for the next 18 months, including:
1) Develop analytical input that are relevant for LCDI policy implementation, including policy sectoral analysis and financing schemes as well as investment needed at national level;
2) Enhance the carrying capacity component of the model to incorporate environmental economics accounts, biodiversity sector, blue carbon data, air pollution and water resources;
3) Develop capacity for modeling low carbon development policies at provincial levels (such as West Papua, Riau, and South Sulawesi)
The consultant will work under the New Climate Economy and World Resources Institute (WRI) Indonesia funded by the UK Climate Change Unit (UKCCU), in coordination with the Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) to support of the Low Carbon Development Initiative (LCDI) in Indonesia.
The aim of the work to be done by the Consultant is to contribute to the LCDI Technocratic Process during the period January 2020 until May 2021, by means of delivering technical system dynamics modeling work to BAPPENAS Director for Environment, NCE and WRI Indonesia as part of the implementation of the RPJMN 2020-2024; and of contributing to the LCDI policy implementation at LCDI target provinces.
The following activities will be carried on by the Consultant, in close consultations with BAPPENAS Environment Directorate:
1) Review the existing LCDI System Dynamics Model, baseline, and LCDI scenarios, and assess the relations between the economy and carrying capacity of the environment;
2) Further develop the LCDI System Dynamics Model with tools and methods for integrated climate – development policy analysis and supporting BAPPENAS in the process of generating new policy scenarios to feed into RPJMN 2020-2024, including:
- Incorporating sectoral analysis and financing schemes at national level;
- Incorporating Environmental Economics Accounts;
- Enhance biodiversity sector, blue carbon data, and water resources element;
3) Lead the development of LCDI Model at LCDI target provinces (i.e. South Sulawesi, West Papua, and Riau);
4) Participate in selected workshops at national and provincial levels (to be agreed upon with BAPPENAS, WRI Indonesia and NCE depending on Consultant’s availability);
5) Provide regular updates to BAPPENAS Director of Environment, WRI Indonesia and NCE about of the status of the process of developing tools and methods for integrated climate – development policy analysis that LCDI Policy Implementation at the Regional and Provincial Level;
6) Contribute to capacity building materials and workshops on System Dynamics to be conducted at provincial level;
7) Coordinate and collaborate with other teams working on LCDI model, including other system dynamics modelers, spatial modelers, web-dashboard programmer, and other LCDI supporting consultants.
- Monthly written reports on national LCDI model refinement;
- Participation in activities referred to in item 4 and 6 in the Activities section above;
- Materials referred to in item 2, 3, and 6 in the Activities section above;
- Vensim model and presentation of the enhanced LCDI System Dynamics model
- Minimum of 3 year of relevant, full-time work experience, in systems analysis, policies scenarios and environment challenges
- Proficient in Systems thinking and System Dynamics Modelling, in Analytics or Data Science, Technical Operations, or other relevant fields
- Advanced technical skill in System Dynamics software, such as Vensim, PowerSim, or Stella;
- Good understanding of quantitative modeling, statistics and probability and problem-solving skills
- Ability to clearly communicate technical ideas to non-technical audience
- Having ability to provide categories and scenario parameters in layman’s terms that are easy to understand
- Interest in and commitment to environment and international development issues
- Adaptable to rapidly changing priorities and able to manage multiple deadlines and deliver high quality work products
- Strong commitment to WRI’s mission and values
- Legally able to work in Indonesia
- Ideal candidate will have bachelor’s or master’s degree in Computer Science, Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, Development Study, Environmental Sciences or Data Science field with gained experience and course in programming modeling and System Dynamics
- Experience and proven ability to develop new dynamic models or manage applied system dynamics oriented towards policy recommendations and/or economic analysis
- Interest and experience in forestry, energy, or other natural resources-related issues in Indonesia
Period of Work
12 months (February 2020 – February 2021)
Must have authorization to work in Indonesia to be eligible for this position.
Final candidates might be required to take a writing test and to produce two writing samples when needed.
Consultant rate: Consultant rate is commensurate with experience and skills.
Qualified applicants should apply online through WRI career portal in order to be formally considered.
Application close: 1700 (Jakarta Time), 21 March 2020. We will close the advert earlier when the best candidates are identified at earlier dates.
This is a locally engaged position; Indonesian nationals are encouraged to apply.
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