Consultancy analyzing how market conditions affect MPCA outcomes in Sudan
Description
Project Location(s): Remote
Organization Background
Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Mercy Corps’ Sudan crisis response seeks to meet the humanitarian needs of vulnerable Sudanese and other conflict-affected people across the country.
The Cash Consortium of Sudan (CCS) is a collaborative platform to advance a progressive vision of the potential of cash assistance to transform humanitarian response and recovery in partnership with vulnerable conflict-affected populations. The CCS was established in 2023 and is led by Mercy Corps, building on its global experience and learning on leading cash consortia in multiple country contexts, as well as general expertise in cash coordination and breadth of technical resources. International partners include Acted, CARE, CORE, the International Rescue Committee (IRC), Concern, GOAL and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), each of which bring strong cash and complementary technical competencies, as well as expansive operational coverage in Sudan. The CCS also includes twelve Sudanese NGOs as partners in alignment with global aid sector commitments to enhance the prominence of local actors in driving humanitarian response and recovery. IMPACT is a non-implementing partner dedicated to Monitoring, Evaluation, Research and Learning strengthening. IMPACT will support quality data systems, and an objective evidence base that will be essential to CCS’ accountability and adaptive management to refine programming approaches to enhance impact as the Sudan crisis context evolves. The CCS will work closely with other consortia and actors in Sudan to deliver an effective CVA response for communities affected by the crisis.
Project Background
The Cash Consortium of Sudan (CCS) implements Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA) across all states of Sudan in a highly volatile conflict and displacement context. While cash assistance is widely recognized as an effective modality, its impact depends in part on households’ ability to convert transfers into welfare gains through access to functioning and responsive markets.
Recent spatial analyses of rural, intermittent markets in Sudan, using the same remote-sensing dataset proposed for this study, indicate that markets have largely continued to function despite widespread violent conflict, displacement, and economic disruption. Satellite-derived measures of rural market activity show that while many markets experience short-term declines around conflict events, only a small fraction exhibit prolonged or permanent closure. Instead, most markets display fluctuations in activity over time rather than wholesale collapse, with evidence of rebound and adaptation following localized shocks.
In several areas, market activity has returned to or exceeded pre-conflict baselines, reflecting shifts in population, trade routes, and localized demand, particularly in rural areas absorbing displaced populations. These patterns suggest a degree of market resilience and adaptation, even as volatility, supply constraints, and price pressures remain acute. Importantly, the persistence of market activity does not imply that markets function uniformly well, but it does indicate that many households retain at least partial access to goods and services, and that variation in market conditions across localities may meaningfully shape how MPCA translates into welfare outcomes.
In this context, CCS seeks to examine the relationships between market activity and MPCA. The findings will inform donor engagement, program design, and strategic decisions around layering MPCA with market support interventions. The study is intended not only to establish whether and how rural market conditions shape MPCA outcomes, but also to generate early insights to inform CCS’s economic/business group (EBG) decisions on where, when, and what kinds of market support activities may be most relevant. If possible, the analysis will help flag localities where outcome–market mismatches suggest trader-side constraints or other opportunities for targeted market strengthening.
Objectives
The consultant will deliver a rigorous, policy-relevant analysis addressing the following questions:
- Do MPCA outcomes vary systematically across localities with different levels and patterns of rural, intermittent market activity, to include remotely observed presence of market actors, volatility in market activity, post-shock recovery patterns, or proximity to large market hubs?
- Does MPCA appear to be more effective in contexts with higher pre-existing rural intermittent market activity, and if so, what implications exist for the design and delivery of market strengthening activities?
- Does market functioning improve in areas following MPCA distribution, reflecting demand-side effects?
- What do various patterns of market activity and MPCA outcomes imply for the design and delivery of market-based support?
- For example, should localities be identified where MPCA outcomes are weak despite persistent market activity, this may point towards trader-side constraints that can be addressed by CCS (liquidity stock, transport). Conversely, in contexts where market activity is low but MPCA outcomes are still relatively strong, this may imply that market support may be less urgent or relevant.
A cross-cutting objective is to generate preliminary, evidence-based signals on where market support interventions (e.g., liquidity support, transport facilitation, trader engagement) may be most warranted by identifying mismatches between market activity patterns and MPCA outcome changes.
Key activities
The consultant will lead the technical analysis in close coordination with CCS research and markets teams.
Data familiarization and design
- Review CCS MPCA registration and PDM datasets, including indicators related to food security, basic needs, and coping strategies.
- Review rural market mapping data derived from high-frequency satellite monitoring (400+ markets).
- Review other reporting and datasets available on market functionality, including urban hub markets (such as IMPACT’s Joint Market Monitoring Initiative) to identify additional data sources for use within the analysis and to contextualize results.
- Finalize an analytical framework and methodological approach entailing multi-level statistical models to examine associations between market dynamics and changes in MPCA outcomes, controlling for exogenous factors including rainfall and level of conflict.
Spatial Mapping
- Define and justify an acceptable market catchment radius for MPCA households.
- Map each PDM locality to one or more proximate markets using GIS methods.
- Prepare spatial outputs showing locality–market linkages, explicitly acknowledging that households may access multiple or shifting markets.
- Where possible, draw on datasets and reporting beyond market mapping to address (statistically or through contextualized interpretation) the relationship between rural market functionality and functionality of other markets (e.g. urban hubs, individual traders).
Market location validation
- Support CCS in conducting light-touch validation of mapped markets with partner organizations.
- Incorporate partner feedback to confirm that mapped markets are relevant, accessible, and reflective of households’ actual purchasing behavior.
- Identify areas of known economic activity which are not included in the mapping dataset, to better contextualize results, for example by reviewing reporting on how households' interactions with markets have changed during the conflict, including differing preferences between urban and rural markets and decentralized or individual traders.
- Explore how trends in rural markets within the mapping dataset align with urban markets, including reporting and IMPACT's JMMI dataset.
Temporal alignment and indicator construction
- Align market activity data with MPCA distribution periods at the locality level.
- Construct market indicators that capture relative market activity compared to market-specific baselines; fluctuations and volatility over time; and changes during MPCA distribution cycles
- Compute locality-level MPCA outcome changes using pre- and post-distribution data.
Statistical Analysis
- Explore associations between locality-level MPCA outcome changes and market activity indicators.
- Estimate multilevel regression models of MPCA impact, accounting for both household- and locality-level variation and controlling for rainfall and level of conflict.
- Conduct robustness checks and sensitivity analyses to assess how results vary under different assumptions about market linkage and timing.
- Where mismatches between market conditions and MPCA outcomes emerge, the analysis will descriptively categorize these patterns in ways that can inform prioritization of market strengthening or trader-support interventions.
Interpretation and synthesis
- Collaborate with CCS researchers to draft technical report based on findings.
- Produce spatial visualizations capturing various aspects of market activity in heatmaps/dotmaps overlaid with locality-level MPCA outcome changes, that support both technical analysis and communication of findings to policy audiences, and that can be incorporated into briefs, slide decks, and external communications.
- Support CCS in translating technical findings into clear, donor-relevant messages.
- Work with CCS and other stakeholders to identify follow-on research questions and methods to build on and validate results of the study.
Deliverables
Technical Report (10-15 pp.), including:
- Detailed methodology
- Description of data sources and limitations
- Regression results and interpretation
- Maps and visualizations (e.g., locality–market overlays, market activity heatmaps)
- Clear synthesis of key findings for donor and decision-making audiences
- Discussion of findings and their relevance to the design and delivery of humanitarian assistance in Sudan (in collaboration with CCS colleagues)
- Clear identification of further research questions or opportunities for validation, to be addressed through potential follow-up studies.
Presentation deck and talking points
- Slide deck summarizing methods, findings, and strategic implications, including high-impact visualizations
- Presentation talking points to ensure a broad cross section of CCS stakeholders can easily present the study in various forums
Communications Product
- Short blog, op-ed, or briefing note suitable for external dissemination
Timeframe / Schedule:
- All work is expected to be completed by March 30, 2026, requiring an estimated 30 days of work.
The Consultant will report to:
- Alex Humphrey, Senior Researcher
The Consultant will work closely with:
- Emergency Markets Advisor, CCS
- Senior Researcher, Resilience and Market Systems
- Deputy Chief of Party, CCS
Required Experience & Skills:
Quantitative & Statistical Analysis
- Advanced proficiency in multilevel / hierarchical regression models.
- Ability to design and implement locality-level and household-level statistical analyses.
- Demonstrated experience working with messy, incomplete, or imperfect humanitarian datasets.
Spatial & Geospatial Analysis
- Expertise in GIS tools (QGIS, ArcGIS, or equivalent).
- Ability to map household localities to proximate markets using geospatial methods.
- Capacity to integrate satellite-derived indicators with program datasets.
Remote-Sensing & Market Analytics
- Familiarity with satellite-derived proxies for economic activity, mobility, or market functioning, or other humanitarian applications.
- Ability to translate high-frequency geospatial datasets into interpretable time-series indicators.
Data Engineering & Indicator Construction
- Ability to clean, merge, and structure large, multi-source datasets
- Experience constructing composite indicators (e.g., volatility, relative activity, deviations from baseline).
- Skill in aligning temporal datasets (MPCA cycles and market activity time-series).
Communication & Synthesis
- Ability to translate complex quantitative findings into clear donor-facing insights.
- Strong writing skills for technical reports, presentations, and external-facing briefs.
- Experience presenting results to non-technical audiences, including program teams and donors.
Visualization & Storytelling
- Proficiency in creating spatial visualizations (heatmaps, dotmaps, linkage diagrams).
- Ability to build clear, intuitive slide decks that communicate technical insights.
- Experience with data visualization tools (R, Python, Tableau, PowerBI, or similar).
Team Efficiency and Effectiveness
Achieving our mission starts with how we build our team and collaborate. By bringing together individuals with a variety of experiences, backgrounds, and perspectives, we strengthen our ability to solve complex challenges and drive innovation. We foster a culture of trust and respect, where every team member is valued for their contributions, empowered to reach their full potential, and motivated to do their best work.
We recognize that building a strong and effective team is an ongoing process, and we remain committed to learning, improving, and growing together.
Equal Employment Opportunity
Mercy Corps is an equal opportunity employer committed to providing equal employment opportunities to all employees and qualified applicants for employment without regard to race, color, sex, sexual orientation, religion or belief, national origin, age, disability, marital status, veteran status, or any other characteristics protected under applicable law.
Mercy Corps is an equal opportunity employer that does not tolerate discrimination on any basis. We actively seek out different backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be collectively stronger and have sustained global impact.
We are committed to providing an environment of respect and psychological safety where equal employment opportunities are available to all. We do not engage in or tolerate discrimination on the basis of race, color, gender identity, gender expression, religion, age, sexual orientation, national or ethnic origin, disability (including HIV/AIDS status), marital status, military veteran status or any other protected group in the locations where we work.
Safeguarding & Ethics
Mercy Corps is committed to ensuring that all individuals we come into contact with through our work, whether team members, community members, programs participants or others, are treated with respect and dignity. We are committed to the core principles regarding prevention of sexual exploitation and abuse laid out by the UN Secretary General and IASC and have signed on to the Interagency Misconduct Disclosure Scheme. We will not tolerate child abuse, sexual exploitation, abuse, or harassment by or of our team members. As part of our commitment to a safe and inclusive work environment, team members are expected to conduct themselves in a professional manner, respect local laws and customs, and to adhere to Mercy Corps Code of Conduct Policies and values at all times. Team members are required to complete mandatory Code of Conduct elearning courses upon hire and on an annual basis.
As an applicant, if you witness or experience any form of sexual misconduct during the recruitment process, please report this to Mercy Corps Integrity Hotline ([email protected]).